Performance Comparison of Various Regression Models in Geothermal Power Plant Net Power Generation Prediction

Forecast errors in power generation lead to significant imbalance penalties, reducing the economic efficiency of plant operations. In competitive electricity markets, deviations from scheduled generation are penalized through a dual-price mechanism, and inaccurate predictions can substantially diminish plant profit margins. This research systematically compares the performance of multiple regression techniques for predicting the net power output of a 165 MW triple-flash and binary cycle geothermal power plant (GPP) in Western Anatolia. The primary aim is to statistically quantify the effects of key operating parameters—inlet temperature, mass flow rate of geothermal fluid, and ambient air temperature—on net electrical power output. The analysis utilises 365 daily averaged observations.…