Integrating rooftop solar into load forecasting: A South African emerging methodology

South Africa’s electricity demand landscape has shifted fundamentally due to persistent supply imbalances, regulatory reform, and rapid growth in behind-the-meter (BTM) rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Amendments to Schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act significantly accelerated rooftop PV uptake, while prolonged load shedding in 2022 and 2023 further drove consumer-led investment in PV and battery energy storage. Although these developments improved consumer resilience, they weakened the relationship between metered demand and underlying system requirements, creating growing challenges for electricity demand forecasting and transmission planning.