Reactive Power Demand Projection from Distribution Networks in Great Britain

Reactive power management is increasingly critical to the secure and economic operation of electricity transmission systems. In Great Britain, reactive power was historically supplied from transmission into distribution networks; however, analysis of over a decade of half-hourly monitoring data from 340 Grid Supply Points (GSPs) reveals a systematic reversal of this pattern. Despite this growing operational significance, no robust framework currently exists for long-term forecasting of reactive power (Q) demand at GSPs. Static active power (P)/Q ratio assumptions, or simply Q trend extrapolation, are becoming increasingly misaligned with observed behaviour thus creating uncertainty in voltage control investment planning.