Probabilistic Assessment of Seasonal Power System Reliability in Jordan Integrating Renewable Variability

The reliability of an electrical power system is fundamental to ensuring a continuous and secure electricity supply, which is essential for national security, economic stability, and societal wellbeing. In long-term power generation planning, maintaining system reliability and adequacy is vital for strategic decision-making. However, conventional optimization and simulation tools exhibit limitations in representing generation outages throughout the year, as they mainly focus on deterministic reserve margins in megawatts while neglecting the probabilistic nature of reliability assessment. This gap restricts the ability to fully evaluate and mitigate risks associated with potential system disruptions, particularly under dynamic operational conditions.